0x5deaaac25aeb7a9a4a8e2555d249d128410af3a6
0x5deaaac25aeb7a9a4a8e2555d249d128410af3a6
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$20.65
Total PnL
$1.36
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?
7 shares @ 46.0¢·now 67.0¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$4.37
$1.37
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
6 shares @ 51.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$4.18
$1.18
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
9 shares @ 34.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.88
$0.88
- YES
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
9 shares @ 32.0¢·now 32.0¢·exp Aug 25, 2026$3.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
4 shares @ 77.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$2.59
$-0.41
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
13 shares @ 23.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$2.54
$-0.46
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
3 shares @ 43.0¢·now 3.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.09
$-1.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?$3.10Aug 15, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?$3.03Aug 15, 12:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?$3.10Aug 15, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?$3.07Aug 15, 10:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during remarks in New York?$0.00Aug 15, 02:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during remarks in New York?$5.00Aug 15, 02:53 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$7.89Aug 15, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?$3.12Aug 14, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 14?$3.07Aug 14, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during remarks in New York?$3.05Aug 14, 03:02 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 13?$4.29Aug 13, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July?$3.08Aug 13, 18:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July?$0.00Aug 13, 16:08 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$9.91Aug 13, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 13?$3.04Aug 13, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during remarks in New York?$2.33Aug 13, 02:46 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$0.00Aug 13, 00:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 3.3% in July?$0.00Aug 12, 17:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 3.4% in July?$6.67Aug 12, 17:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?$0.00Aug 11, 21:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $3.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 21:21 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 22:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.