0x5e8945b9ba954571c74e90dbba3d6ada11b05460
0x5e8945b9ba954571c74e90dbba3d6ada11b05460
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$1.82
Total PnL
$-9.09
Realised
$-1.82
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Osasuna win on 2025-12-08?
2 shares @ 55.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2025$1.82
$0.82
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?
1990 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.99
- HAWKS
Spread: Hawks (-3.5)
8 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$0.00
$-3.98
- NO
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?
7 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.97
- NO
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
7 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.04
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
4 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.04
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?
4 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.02
- NO
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.06
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$0.17Mar 4, 20:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$0.11Mar 2, 18:59 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$0.07Mar 2, 18:59 UTC
- REDEEMTexans vs. Steelers$0.07Mar 2, 18:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix (NFLX) close above $40 end of January?$0.06Mar 2, 18:59 UTC
- REDEEMHawks vs. Warriors$0.13Mar 2, 18:59 UTC
- REDEEM49ers vs. Eagles$0.13Mar 2, 18:58 UTC
- REDEEMBills vs. Jaguars$0.07Mar 2, 18:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?$0.12Mar 2, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?$1.97Jan 14, 21:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship?$1.95Jan 14, 20:59 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$5.09Jan 14, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Indiana win the 2026 College Football National Championship?$1.97Jan 14, 19:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$1.96Jan 14, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$1.97Jan 14, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill António José Seguro win more than 22% of votes in the first round?$1.73Jan 14, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$1.98Jan 14, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill António José Seguro win more than 22% of votes in the first round?$2.20Jan 14, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?$2.25Jan 14, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?$3.02Jan 14, 19:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $2.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 11, 21:43 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 4, 20:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.