Wallet digest

active

Activity score

41/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$11.30

Total PnL

$-225.62

Realised

$-7.92

Win rate

75 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 76

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET
11 shares @ 79.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026
$11.30
$2.30
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 Argentina?
42 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Argentina?
32 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 England?
25 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
YES
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 England?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Switzerland?
18 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
18 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?
17 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.02Aug 18, 02:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.02Aug 18, 02:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.02Aug 18, 02:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.02Aug 18, 02:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.02Aug 18, 02:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.02Aug 18, 02:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.03Aug 18, 02:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.03Aug 18, 02:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.03Aug 18, 02:32 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$3.77Aug 18, 02:31 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$8.86Aug 18, 02:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$2.03Aug 18, 02:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$2.03Aug 18, 02:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$2.03Aug 18, 02:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$2.03Aug 18, 02:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$2.09Aug 18, 02:00 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$0.00Aug 17, 10:15 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$9.89Aug 17, 10:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$1.05Aug 17, 10:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$1.05Aug 17, 10:02 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

55/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 75 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

75 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity70 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry51 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk49 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $1.84
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 18, 03:01 UTC
Last active: Aug 18, 02:32 UTC
Win rate sample: 75 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:41:50 UTC·src:Polymarket Data