Fitting-Arrival
0x5f032ff0e9376538ac240417ea5863756e1f2634
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$343.25
Total PnL
$-71.69
Realised
$-12.16
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
118 shares @ 60.7¢·now 53.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$63.05
$-8.50
- YES
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
151 shares @ 45.4¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$53.56
$-15.00
- YES
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
100 shares @ 48.4¢·now 51.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$51.00
$2.63
- YES
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?
150 shares @ 30.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg?
100 shares @ 44.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 5, 2026$43.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Netflix win the most Emmys?
200 shares @ 37.8¢·now 19.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$38.00
$-37.51
- YES
Will Colorado Avalanche be the 2027 NHL Western Conference Champion?
110 shares @ 24.3¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jun 5, 2027$26.95
$0.16
- YES
Will Elmedin Konaković be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
102 shares @ 22.6¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$22.94
$-0.06
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.03Jul 24, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$11.33Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$2.70Jul 23, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix win the most Emmys?$7.60Jul 23, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix win the most Emmys?$7.60Jul 23, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix win the most Emmys?$19.00Jul 23, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix win the most Emmys?$3.80Jul 23, 21:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$3.50Jul 23, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$20.00Jul 23, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$44.99Jul 23, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix win the most Emmys?$2.01Jul 23, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix win the most Emmys?$16.06Jul 23, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix win the most Emmys?$20.61Jul 23, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?$46.26Jul 23, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$46.00Jul 23, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$16.94Jul 23, 05:32 UTC
- REWARD$5.00Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elmedin Konaković be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?$1.03Jul 22, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elmedin Konaković be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?$22.68Jul 22, 20:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$25.00Jul 22, 10:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $20.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 14:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.