Wallet digest

active

Activity score

48/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$16.50

Total PnL

$-72.14

Realised

$-33.40

Win rate

17%

18 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 18

UP
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
6 shares @ 59.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026
$5.50
$2.21
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
5 shares @ 56.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$5.00
$2.16
UP
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
3 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026
$3.00
$0.81
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
3 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$3.00
$1.50
UP
BNB Up or Down - April 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
16 shares @ 47.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-7.44
UP
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
10 shares @ 43.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-4.56
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
10 shares @ 40.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-4.20
UP
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
10 shares @ 37.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-3.93
UP
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
6 shares @ 59.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-3.29
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
6 shares @ 59.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-3.29

Recent activity

REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$0.00Jun 14, 07:01 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$1.55Jun 14, 06:55 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$0.00Jun 13, 20:16 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET$0.34Jun 13, 20:10 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$0.00Jun 13, 15:17 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$2.23Jun 13, 15:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$0.00Jun 12, 23:30 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$0.28Jun 12, 17:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$2.64Jun 12, 17:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$0.00Jun 12, 16:11 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$0.00Jun 12, 16:11 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$2.93Jun 12, 12:10 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - May 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$0.00May 22, 05:52 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$0.00May 22, 05:52 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - May 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET$0.00May 22, 05:52 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$0.00Apr 26, 23:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$2.69Apr 26, 23:12 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - April 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$0.00Apr 26, 19:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - April 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$2.15Apr 26, 19:41 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - April 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$0.00Apr 26, 19:31 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

48/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

17% win rate over 18 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity35 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence60 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry83 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk42 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 24
Avg trade size: $2.23
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 26, 14:28 UTC
Last active: Jun 14, 07:01 UTC
Win rate sample: 18 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:05:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data