Vague-Custard
0x5fbbb661b11ab5f1dbcb392ce9a8390e5072acb2
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
134
Open notional
$693.59
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$12.34
Win rate
55%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 134- YES
Will António Costa visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
140 shares @ 50.7¢·now 54.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$76.30
$5.30
- NO
Will António Costa visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
160 shares @ 51.2¢·now 45.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$72.80
$-9.20
- NO
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
100 shares @ 58.5¢·now 58.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$58.50
$0.00
- YES
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
80 shares @ 59.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$46.00
$-1.20
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?
57 shares @ 73.9¢·now 73.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$41.91
$-0.50
- YES
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
100 shares @ 41.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$41.50
$0.50
- YES
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?
80 shares @ 69.5¢·now 50.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$40.00
$-15.60
- YES
Will Maia Sandu visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
62 shares @ 50.5¢·now 54.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.42
$2.13
- NO
Will Maia Sandu visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
70 shares @ 51.7¢·now 46.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.20
$-4.00
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
50 shares @ 61.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.50
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?$4.20Jul 31, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$12.00Jul 31, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$37.00Jul 31, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$5.41Jul 31, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$4.35Jul 31, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by December 31?$30.50Jul 31, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$6.60Jul 31, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$12.60Jul 31, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by December 31?$23.06Jul 31, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?$6.09Jul 31, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?$12.60Jul 31, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?$4.10Jul 31, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?$2.04Jul 31, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?$11.80Jul 31, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?$12.20Jul 31, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$29.50Jul 31, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$20.00Jul 31, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$21.00Jul 31, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?$11.60Jul 31, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?$8.20Jul 31, 18:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $11.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 14:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 21:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.