0x5fc2523ba470c68bf7e41da65c418f90f8c5f693
0x5fc2523ba470c68bf7e41da65c418f90f8c5f693
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
6
Open notional
$5.08
Total PnL
$-6.56
Realised
$2.03
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026?
5 shares @ 24.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$5.08
$3.82
- NO
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
35 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-4.23
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
24 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.17
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
15 shares @ 18.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.89
- YES
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026?
4 shares @ 28.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.18
- NO
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
2 shares @ 53.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.92
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026?$1.86Jul 27, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026?$2.22Jul 27, 01:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill White House post 200+ posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$0.00Jul 14, 05:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill White House post 200+ posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$5.03Jul 14, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 200+ posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$4.52Jul 11, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 11?$0.89Jul 11, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 11?$3.76Jul 11, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$0.00Jul 6, 17:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$5.02Jul 6, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$4.38Jul 6, 03:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026?$3.70Jun 29, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026?$2.38Jun 28, 01:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$0.00Jun 26, 18:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$4.93Jun 26, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?$4.37Jun 26, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$0.00Jun 19, 18:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$0.00Jun 18, 19:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$2.77Jun 18, 02:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?$0.00Jun 17, 18:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$1.57Jun 17, 18:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $3.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 19:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 06:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.