Submissive-Refuge
0x5fd45113f95ca1ec488904aae7f67d7fd32a60ac
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
179
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-339.79
Realised
$15.93
Win rate
57%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 179- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?
668 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.01
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
534 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-2.02
- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
460 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.92
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$4.18Jul 20, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?$1.05Jul 18, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?$1.04Jul 17, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET$1.05Jul 15, 00:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$7.37Jul 13, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.57Jul 13, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$5.26Jul 12, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$1.06Jul 12, 12:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.07Jul 12, 12:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$0.89Jul 11, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$1.03Jul 11, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$1.05Jul 11, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$1.04Jul 11, 20:26 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$0.00Jul 7, 13:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$6.37Jul 7, 13:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$0.00Jul 7, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.07Jul 7, 13:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$0.34Jul 7, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$1.05Jul 7, 12:26 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$1.71Jul 7, 12:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $1.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 28, 10:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 07:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.