Stark-Gaiters
0x5ff1923b1fa811232622e0b654d4437e888b9511
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-266.46
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Trump approval >40% on July 1?
507 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2025$0.00
$-22.00
- YES
China bans US films before July?
505 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?
469 shares @ 15.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-72.46
- NO
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?
231 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31?
199 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
128 shares @ 78.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by June 15?
95 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2025$0.00
$-18.00
- YES
Nothing Ever Happens: June
28 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- NO
Will France recognize Palestine in 2025?
22 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?$2.66Dec 11, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?$1.80Dec 11, 13:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill xAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?$0.73Dec 11, 13:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.94Dec 11, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?$5.00Dec 11, 13:18 UTC
- TRADESELLNuclear weapon detonation in 2025?$1.57Dec 11, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$0.92Dec 11, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: AI Edition$1.56Dec 11, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?$2.67Dec 11, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?$2.00Dec 11, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?$14.00Dec 11, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: AI Edition$2.00Dec 11, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?$1.00Dec 11, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?$3.00Dec 11, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.00Dec 11, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$3.00Dec 11, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31?$6.00Dec 11, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation in 2025?$2.00Dec 11, 00:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?$20.00Dec 11, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?$12.00Dec 10, 07:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $16.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 1, 10:10 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 11, 13:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.