Colorless-Underwriting
0x600065fc50260512091f02c51139339eebca59ad
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
119
Open notional
$5.20
Total PnL
$-271.91
Realised
$15.16
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 119- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
23 shares @ 22.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.30
$-1.70
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5 shares @ 19.0¢·now 20.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.05
$0.05
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
6 shares @ 16.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.47
$-0.53
- YES
US recession by end of 2026?
3 shares @ 30.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$0.38
$-0.62
- YES
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
186 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
153 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-4.76
- BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET$1.07May 23, 00:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$1.05May 21, 03:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET$2.00May 21, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET$3.14May 21, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET$1.04May 21, 03:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$1.70May 21, 02:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$2.08May 21, 02:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$0.00May 21, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$5.33May 21, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$1.03May 21, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31?$1.00May 20, 22:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$0.00May 19, 02:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$1.06May 19, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$5.19May 19, 01:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$3.08May 19, 01:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$5.26May 19, 01:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$1.04May 19, 00:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET$2.04May 19, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET$3.13May 19, 00:47 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$11.32May 19, 00:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $3.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 9, 22:42 UTC
- Last active
- May 23, 00:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.