Quarrelsome-Polyp-Eyelashes
0x601c283ff067c38fad5850da3aae962ff20f0dc6
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$2.03
Total PnL
$1.0K
Realised
$1.1K
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
140 shares @ 6.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.03
$-6.38
- NO
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?
1088 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
266 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C or below on August 2?
39 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.00
$-13.01
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
11 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$8.74Aug 1, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?$5.20Aug 1, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?$10.48Aug 1, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?$5.13Aug 1, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C or below on August 2?$13.45Aug 1, 04:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $8.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 04:24 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 04:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.