Hearty-Chasuble
0x609f8cd5a4734dbfbfe59e125e0204b2c3cdada6
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.3K
Realised
$-189.89
Win rate
22%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 19?
2656 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 12?
1425 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.43
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
1088 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 8?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
848 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-87.74
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
695 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-18.60
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
667 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
650 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-54.84
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$29.41Jul 21, 09:26 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$0.00Jul 21, 09:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$29.09Jul 21, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$16.50Jul 21, 09:24 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$16.60Jul 21, 09:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$20.29Jul 21, 09:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$20.53Jul 21, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$42.82Jul 21, 09:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$13.17Jul 21, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$9.60Jul 21, 09:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$38.78Jul 21, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET$49.42Jul 21, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$15.47Jul 21, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$13.12Jul 21, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$31.09Jul 21, 08:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$14.01Jul 21, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$25.98Jul 21, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$2.15Jul 21, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$7.22Jul 21, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$7.19Jul 21, 08:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $17.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 08:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 09:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.