Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-885.17

Realised

$-11.30

Win rate

101 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UNDER
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
101 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-1.01
YES
Will Paper Rex win the EWC Valorant Tournament
78 shares @ 19.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$0.00
$-15.42
NO
Will The Mongolz Make a Roster Change before September?
50 shares @ 71.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$0.00
$-35.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
38 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
36 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
ESUBA
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs
32 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
20 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-2.40
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET
16 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-2.20
UP
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026
$0.00
$-1.01
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
12 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-2.10

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$0.00Aug 3, 15:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$45.03Aug 3, 15:34 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$45.56Aug 3, 15:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$41.29Aug 3, 15:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$35.29Aug 3, 15:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET$30.31Aug 3, 15:23 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 9, 21:43 UTC
REWARD$4.61Jul 6, 00:00 UTC
REWARD$2.16Jul 4, 00:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$10.52Jul 3, 12:35 UTC
TRADEBUYWill The Mongolz Make a Roster Change before September?$35.50Jul 3, 09:39 UTC
TRADESELLWill Astralis Make a Roster Change before September?$1.89Jul 3, 07:51 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Astralis Make a Roster Change before September?$1.96Jul 3, 07:50 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Paper Rex win the EWC Valorant Tournament$1.38Jul 3, 05:44 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Paper Rex win the EWC Valorant Tournament$0.80Jul 3, 02:30 UTC
REWARD$5.33Jul 3, 00:00 UTC
TRADEBUYMap 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5$0.91Jul 2, 23:38 UTC
TRADEBUYMap 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5$0.10Jul 2, 23:34 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Paper Rex win the EWC Valorant Tournament$0.64Jul 2, 22:30 UTC
REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 2?$5.01Jul 2, 21:47 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 101 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

101 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity43 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry66 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk28 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 36
Avg trade size: $10.07
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 2, 11:36 UTC
Last active: Aug 3, 15:36 UTC
Win rate sample: 101 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:34:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data