Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

198

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-11.8K

Realised

$-428.18

Win rate

167 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 198

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
2175 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-32.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
2100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-42.90
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET
2000 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET
1400 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-64.99
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
1393 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$0.00
$-85.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
1125 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-70.29
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET
1100 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-19.94
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
1050 shares @ 19.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-204.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
1026 shares @ 48.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-500.00

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$8.60Jul 13, 16:49 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$2.50Jul 13, 00:45 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$463.17Jul 12, 06:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$157.10Jul 12, 05:58 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET$1.0KJul 12, 03:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET$159.94Jul 12, 03:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET$260.63Jul 12, 03:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET$260.22Jul 12, 03:23 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$816.38Jul 12, 03:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$9.43Jul 12, 03:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$9.19Jul 12, 03:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$35.22Jul 12, 03:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$1.82Jul 12, 03:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$17.84Jul 12, 03:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$16.50Jul 12, 03:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$157.45Jul 12, 02:57 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$700.58Jul 12, 02:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$26.28Jul 12, 02:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$5.69Jul 12, 02:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$16.00Jul 12, 02:53 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

58/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 167 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

167 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry41 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 42
Avg trade size: $51.46
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 12, 02:22 UTC
Last active: Jul 13, 16:49 UTC
Win rate sample: 167 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 23:34:25 UTC·src:Polymarket Data