Keen-Toll
0x617a80402d374a6b1ed17279ac32be36eba7b4f1
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$159.32
Total PnL
$-92.55
Realised
$-21.11
Win rate
18%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- OPENAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
500 shares @ 16.8¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$52.50
$-31.50
- YES
Will Roseana Sarney win the most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?
20 shares @ 68.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$14.00
$0.40
- YES
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?
20 shares @ 64.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$10.90
$-1.90
- YES
Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?
20 shares @ 45.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Sep 11, 2026$8.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?
20 shares @ 55.6¢·now 38.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$7.71
$-3.41
- YES
Will Eugenio Segura Vázquez win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?
19 shares @ 36.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jun 6, 2027$7.62
$0.68
- ANTHROPIC
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
8 shares @ 82.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$7.46
$0.62
- YES
Will Dr. Fernando Máximo win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?
10 shares @ 63.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$7.15
$0.85
- YES
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027?
20 shares @ 52.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$6.30
$-4.10
- NO
Will Renato Casagrande win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?
20 shares @ 28.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$5.50
$-0.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?$11.12Aug 18, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renato Casagrande win the most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?$5.60Aug 18, 12:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roseana Sarney win the most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?$13.60Aug 18, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arthur Henrique win the 2026 Roraima gubernatorial election?$4.40Aug 18, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?$0.45Aug 18, 11:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?$0.41Aug 18, 11:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?$5.20Aug 18, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?$8.60Aug 18, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?$0.42Aug 18, 10:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?$15.57Aug 18, 10:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marcos Rogério win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?$4.60Aug 18, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marcos Rogério win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?$8.80Aug 18, 09:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eli Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?$0.06Aug 18, 06:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?$5.62Aug 18, 06:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?$0.78Aug 18, 06:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dr. Fernando Máximo win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?$6.10Aug 18, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dr. Fernando Máximo win the most votes in the 2026 Rondônia Senate election?$12.60Aug 18, 05:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eli Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?$19.38Aug 18, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Espírito Santo?$13.00Aug 18, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Espírito Santo?$16.00Aug 18, 04:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
18% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $8.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 12:10 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 12:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.