Wallet profile

Sardonic-Supplier

0x618534bef69023c72e9400f42191c412d1882965

activity 41/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

41/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.4M

Realised

$-209.40

Win rate

27%

48 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

Recent activity

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

Ledger volume

$187.2K

Trades

3

Buy share

79%

Window

May 17, 18:50 UTC → Jun 29, 23:34 UTC

Last 30 days · daily volumemax $0.00

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

27% win rate over 48 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

42 live trades, 7 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.

Resolved-only track record
pass

48 closed markets, 27% win rate.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$90.4K

1 trades

Buy share

79%

Sample

limited

7 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?

$90.4K · 48% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw?48% of recorded volume$90.4KWill Australia win on 2026-06-19?22% of recorded volume$41.0KWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?12% of recorded volume$22.4K

Profile dimensions

Activity60 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry68 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk45 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
42
Avg trade size
$1.5K
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jul 22, 09:56 UTC
Last active
Jul 24, 00:45 UTC
Win rate sample
48 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 00:53:44 UTC·src:Polymarket Data