Prickly-Passport
0x619dc40631c5f78606d17ed1528d62898096b31c
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
32
Open notional
$4.51
Total PnL
$-105.29
Realised
$14.04
Win rate
17%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 32- NO
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 25+ times during Pennsylvania events?
5 shares @ 44.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$2.60
$0.40
- NO
Will Starmer say "Victim" during the next PMQ?
2 shares @ 48.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.98
$-0.02
- NO
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during the next PMQ?
3 shares @ 15.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.84
$0.40
- NO
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Pennsylvania events?
9 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.08
$-1.27
- NO
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?
174 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?
154 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-4.27
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
104 shares @ 77.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-80.21
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
81 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Victim" during the next PMQ?$1.02Jun 23, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Pennsylvania events?$0.21Jun 23, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Pennsylvania events?$0.16Jun 23, 20:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Dell" this week?$1.66Jun 23, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Dell" this week?$5.06Jun 23, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 25+ times during Pennsylvania events?$2.25Jun 23, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Pennsylvania events?$1.02Jun 23, 19:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jordan win on 2026-06-22?$30.00Jun 23, 05:15 UTC
- SPLITWill Jordan win on 2026-06-22?$30.00Jun 23, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$1.04Jun 23, 01:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?$0.35Jun 22, 22:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$0.73Jun 22, 21:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$1.31Jun 22, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$1.50Jun 22, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?$1.00Jun 22, 16:20 UTC
- TRADESELLJay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by August 30?$1.24Jun 22, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by June 22, 2026?$40.00Jun 22, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Starmer say "Constituent" or "Constituency" during the next PMQ?$2.87Jun 22, 09:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$0.53Jun 22, 09:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 22?$0.86Jun 22, 04:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 11:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 23, 22:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.