0x622a81392368b0bdc4b948ae3e041da20fbdcc4c
0x622a81392368b0bdc4b948ae3e041da20fbdcc4c
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$59.79
Total PnL
$-588.66
Realised
$-41.28
Win rate
18%
51 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 29?
28 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$28.20
$0.06
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 10.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$20.00
$18.00
- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
29 shares @ 38.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.46
$0.43
- YES
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch?
10 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.10
$-0.01
- YES
Will fewer than 950 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
17 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$0.04
$-1.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on March 10?
655 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-6.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 9?
599 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-23.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 10?
330 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-13.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 8?
300 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 10?
226 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.33
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
18% win rate over 51 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
51 closed markets, 18% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 51 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.