Wary-Happening
0x6239c6146935f5e5e3c08b88c25997997935c6b4
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-20.2K
Realised
$1.3K
Win rate
75%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November?
29439 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-503.55
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 1-7?
25604 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2025$0.00
$-417.89
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 March 30-April 5?
14231 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-348.63
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 21?
10584 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-74.44
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 15?
10544 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-244.12
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 14?
9566 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-508.20
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 July 6-12?
9414 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-469.05
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 19?
8878 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-236.69
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 3AM ET
8816 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-392.66
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?
8755 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-405.62
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 on July 27?$1.16Jul 28, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 28?$1.07Jul 28, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 28?$1.28Jul 28, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,850 on July 27?$1.06Jul 28, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,850 on July 27?$0.39Jul 28, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 on July 27?$1.18Jul 28, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,850 on July 27?$2.13Jul 28, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 28?$3.20Jul 28, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 28?$3.20Jul 28, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 28?$2.14Jul 28, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 28?$2.14Jul 28, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 28?$2.14Jul 28, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET$2.12Jul 24, 00:54 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$2.41Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,850 on July 23?$1.37Jul 23, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 on July 23?$0.82Jul 23, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 on July 23?$0.78Jul 23, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$3.12Jul 23, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 on July 23?$2.88Jul 23, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 on July 23?$0.27Jul 23, 19:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $5.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 15:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 02:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.