Revolving-Holiday
0x62b3dfd8fda8fb42cd00a0de364005d21aaeb43c
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-289.10
Realised
$1.98
Win rate
55%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C or below on May 1?
579 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 19?
317 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on April 19?
295 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on April 30?
294 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or below on April 10?
294 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 29?
282 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on May 1?
232 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C or below on May 3?
218 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 20?
208 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on May 16?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 20?$1.06Jul 20, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 20?$1.03Jul 20, 02:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 10?$1.52Jul 11, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 10?$1.02Jul 10, 12:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 8?$2.27Jul 8, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 8?$0.40Jul 8, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 8?$1.02Jul 8, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 8?$1.03Jul 8, 02:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 8?$1.03Jul 8, 02:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 6?$1.38Jul 6, 07:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 6?$0.19Jul 6, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 6?$1.03Jul 6, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 6?$1.05Jul 6, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 6?$1.02Jul 6, 00:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 5?$9.22Jul 5, 14:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 5?$1.85Jul 5, 11:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 5?$2.04Jul 5, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on July 5?$3.09Jul 5, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 5?$3.08Jul 5, 10:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on July 5?$1.68Jul 5, 06:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $4.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 05:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 05:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.