Wallet digest

active

Activity score

56/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$472.40

Total PnL

$-146.87

Realised

$-9.58

Win rate

27 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 37

YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
257 shares @ 74.1¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026
$239.88
$49.89
NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
119 shares @ 86.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026
$112.32
$10.10
YES
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
113 shares @ 52.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$32.24
$-26.59
UNDER
Qairat FK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 3.5
15 shares @ 81.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026
$14.71
$2.71
NO
Will Qairat FK win on 2026-08-11?
10 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026
$10.13
$2.13
OVER
Qairat FK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 0.5
9 shares @ 85.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026
$9.33
$1.33
UNDER
Qairat FK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 2.5
6 shares @ 74.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026
$6.38
$1.63
YES
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-08-11?
9 shares @ 70.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026
$6.13
$0.13
NO
Qairat FK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: Both Teams to Score
5 shares @ 41.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026
$4.88
$2.88
YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 55.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026
$4.30
$-6.70

Recent activity

SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$0.01Aug 11, 16:26 UTC
TRADEBUYQairat FK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 2.5$2.04Aug 11, 16:24 UTC
TRADEBUYWill PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-08-11?$2.09Aug 11, 16:22 UTC
TRADEBUYSabah FK vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to Score$2.07Aug 11, 16:22 UTC
SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$0.01Aug 11, 16:20 UTC
TRADEBUYQairat FK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 2.5$2.05Aug 11, 16:19 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: SK Iberia 1999 (-1.5)$2.04Aug 11, 16:19 UTC
TRADEBUYSK Iberia 1999 vs. Larne FC: Both Teams to Score$2.05Aug 11, 16:19 UTC
MERGEQairat FK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 2.5$10.41Aug 11, 16:19 UTC
SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$0.01Aug 11, 16:15 UTC
SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$0.01Aug 11, 16:11 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Sabah FK win on 2026-08-11?$2.07Aug 11, 16:06 UTC
SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET$0.01Aug 11, 16:06 UTC
TRADEBUYSabah FK vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5$2.07Aug 11, 16:05 UTC
TRADEBUYSabah FK vs. Aarhus GF: Both Teams to Score$2.06Aug 11, 16:05 UTC
TRADEBUYQairat FK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 1.5$2.05Aug 11, 16:05 UTC
TRADEBUYSabah FK vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 3.5$2.05Aug 11, 16:05 UTC
TRADEBUYSabah FK vs. Aarhus GF: O/U 2.5$2.08Aug 11, 16:04 UTC
MERGEWill PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-08-11?$12.55Aug 11, 16:03 UTC
SPLITBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$0.01Aug 11, 16:01 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

56/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

4% win rate over 27 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity69 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence90 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry57 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 35
Avg trade size: $2.06
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 11, 15:30 UTC
Last active: Aug 11, 16:26 UTC
Win rate sample: 27 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:17:30 UTC·src:Polymarket Data