Flimsy-Handicap
0x631127de571bb2ee447d2a557ba2145e80c4fb18
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$134.31
Total PnL
$-416.76
Realised
$1.40
Win rate
100%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 13?
70 shares @ 12.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$14.35
$5.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on July 12?
70 shares @ 13.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$10.50
$1.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on July 13?
70 shares @ 10.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$10.15
$3.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 13?
70 shares @ 7.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$9.10
$4.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 12?
70 shares @ 11.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$7.70
$0.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 12?
70 shares @ 15.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$5.60
$-4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 12?
70 shares @ 5.0¢·now 7.3¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$5.11
$1.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 12?
70 shares @ 10.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$4.90
$-2.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 12?
70 shares @ 9.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$4.86
$-1.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 12?
70 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.6¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$3.92
$-0.28
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 13?$0.07Jul 12, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 13?$0.30Jul 12, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 12?$0.07Jul 12, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 12?$0.06Jul 12, 05:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 13?$0.04Jul 12, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 13?$0.07Jul 12, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on July 13?$1.42Jul 12, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 13?$0.06Jul 12, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 13?$0.13Jul 12, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 12?$0.10Jul 12, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 12?$0.17Jul 12, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 12?$0.03Jul 12, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 12?$0.02Jul 12, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 13?$0.31Jul 12, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 13?$0.25Jul 12, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 12?$0.05Jul 12, 04:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 12?$12.60Jul 12, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 12?$0.02Jul 12, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 12?$0.05Jul 12, 04:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on July 12?$0.00Jul 12, 04:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 03:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 05:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.