Early-Fault
0x635f6c9b0a8abda3655a0177185de714f30d92f3
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.13
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$43.80
Win rate
61%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.13
$-0.88
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
1169 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
1167 shares @ 8.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-97.26
- NO
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?
1144 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-19.85
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
551 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.01
- NO
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?
529 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-28.62
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
457 shares @ 22.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-104.52
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
431 shares @ 20.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-87.41
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
402 shares @ 17.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-71.60
- YES
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?
326 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-11.97
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?$1.37Jul 13, 00:05 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$1.33Jul 13, 00:05 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$14.85Jul 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$13.00Jul 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$5.87Jul 12, 09:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?$5.20Jul 12, 09:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$8.39Jul 11, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$10.40Jul 11, 22:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$4.71Jul 9, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$0.30Jul 9, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$1.49Jul 9, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?$6.00Jul 9, 11:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 8?$1.19Jul 8, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 8?$1.93Jul 8, 21:56 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$2.03Jul 8, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 8?$0.02Jul 8, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$20.00Jul 8, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 8?$0.81Jul 8, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$15.00Jul 8, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?$1.00Jul 8, 11:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
61% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
41 closed markets, 61% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $6.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 22:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 00:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.