Spectacular-Mercury
0x637f14532d4103461f1b06d677a8bbcfdc37f1f8
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
105
Open notional
$247.76
Total PnL
$-366.65
Realised
$8.68
Win rate
26%
61 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 105- YES
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
2610 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.49
$-56.51
- NO
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
65 shares @ 73.9¢·now 28.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.18
$-29.82
- YES
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?
887 shares @ 2.3¢·now 1.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.86
$-3.14
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 15?
20 shares @ 82.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$16.20
$-0.20
- YES
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
16 shares @ 61.5¢·now 83.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.26
$3.43
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
12 shares @ 90.5¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.60
$0.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 14?
12 shares @ 81.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$10.06
$0.06
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 14?
11 shares @ 91.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$9.89
$-0.11
- YES
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
176 shares @ 8.5¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.68
$-5.32
- NO
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?
10 shares @ 57.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$9.65
$3.95
Recent activity
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$0.00Aug 13, 13:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 12?$0.00Aug 13, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 15?$3.70Aug 13, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 14?$9.33Aug 13, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 15?$3.65Aug 13, 13:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 15?$16.55Aug 13, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on August 14?$10.09Aug 13, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 14?$10.04Aug 13, 07:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$1.35Aug 13, 06:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 14?$6.13Aug 13, 01:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 14?$3.48Aug 13, 01:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 14?$0.85Aug 13, 01:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 13?$9.18Aug 12, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 14?$10.08Aug 12, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 13?$3.45Aug 12, 19:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 13?$6.98Aug 12, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 13?$9.01Aug 12, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 13?$10.04Aug 12, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on August 12?$1.05Aug 12, 08:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
26% win rate over 61 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
61 closed markets, 26% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $6.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 14:42 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 13:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 61 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.