Creepy-Dysfunction
0x63a900e728d145140f4353c571f02f94e09a9a69
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$223.42
Total PnL
$-45.1K
Realised
$-13.2K
Win rate
20%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- YES
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
333 shares @ 53.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$194.65
$18.30
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
25 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$25.30
$5.31
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
50 shares @ 3.1¢·now 4.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.42
$0.87
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 35.7¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.04
$-0.88
- USC
USC vs. TCU
46776 shares @ 56.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-26.5K
- NO
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-21?
7407 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 21, 2025$0.00
$-67.90
- YES
Maduro out in 2025?
4798 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-33.59
- YES
Volodymyr Zelenskyy in jail by December 31?
3264 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-19.59
- JAZZ
Celtics vs. Jazz
2440 shares @ 29.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-710.71
- NO
Will Nigeria win on 2025-12-30?
2353 shares @ 48.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.1K
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.