Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-676.99

Realised

$-91.22

Win rate

88 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 96

UP
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17?
84 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
51 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-29.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
49 shares @ 59.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-29.04
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
49 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-29.28
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
28 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-14.85
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
27 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-15.12
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
18 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-10.97
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
18 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026
$0.00
$-9.60
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
16 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$0.00
$-9.44
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
15 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-9.30

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$1.92Jul 9, 21:14 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.01Jun 23, 00:14 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$7.10Jun 18, 09:05 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$4.87Jun 18, 09:01 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$4.86Jun 18, 08:36 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$5.11Jun 18, 08:11 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$8.14Jun 18, 07:31 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$4.78Jun 18, 07:26 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET$5.06Jun 18, 07:20 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET$4.49Jun 18, 07:16 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$6.07Jun 18, 07:15 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$4.99Jun 18, 07:11 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$9.18Jun 18, 06:55 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$4.75Jun 18, 06:51 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$5.00Jun 18, 06:45 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$4.29Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$8.08Jun 18, 06:41 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$4.86Jun 18, 06:36 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$6.08Jun 18, 06:35 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$4.93Jun 18, 06:31 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

66/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 88 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

88 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity37 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry81 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 28
Avg trade size: $4.81
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 18, 00:21 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:14 UTC
Win rate sample: 88 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:53:54 UTC·src:Polymarket Data