0x63e0087abbeb57a6954a85c1b3ba00b0fc094ca5
0x63e0087abbeb57a6954a85c1b3ba00b0fc094ca5
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-500.62
Realised
$-10.58
Win rate
57%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- NO
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
50 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- NO
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?
50 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-36.00
- YES
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $170 in June?
50 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 22?
50 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?
50 shares @ 28.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-14.30
- YES
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?
50 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-20.50
- NO
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026?
50 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-22.50
- NO
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 Week of July 6 2026?
50 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-22.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?
32 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-9.77
- NO
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-8.56
Recent activity
- REWARD$38.67Aug 7, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mo Ivory win the 2026 Fulton Commission Chair election?$3.87Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$2.00Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 85 mph?$0.02Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in July 2026?$0.03Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mark Keough win the 2026 Montgomery County Judge election?$2.90Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alex Villanueva win the 2026 Los Angeles County Sheriff election?$2.32Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dexter McCoy win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election?$3.87Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Craig Greenberg win the 2026 Louisville mayoral election?$1.93Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Congress override any veto in 2026?$0.42Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?$3.09Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolas Dupont-Aignan be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$6.82Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 1.5% and 1.9%?$0.11Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be below 0%?$1.91Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Catherine West be in the Burnham cabinet?$0.29Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLCalifornia Rainy Day Fund Proposition$0.22Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zoran Tegeltija be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?$0.37Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLCalifornia Homebuying Loan Program Proposition$3.68Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLCalifornia Rainy Day Fund Proposition$3.11Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?$4.85Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 05:13 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 20:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.