Cold-Rebellion
0x64391432e58ff6427f924d9635e4ce441d732e49
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
106
Open notional
$125.30
Total PnL
$-363.31
Realised
$-11.72
Win rate
0%
93 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 106- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
68 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$64.52
$1.02
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
50 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.14
$1.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 19?
11 shares @ 4.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$10.81
$10.38
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
50 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.77
$-0.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 20?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$0.05
$-0.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on August 3?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on July 30?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 12?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on July 31?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 3?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 20?$0.10Aug 20, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Houston Dynamo win on 2026-08-19?$1.05Aug 20, 04:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 19?$10.57Aug 19, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 19?$0.43Aug 19, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 19?$0.00Aug 19, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 19?$0.86Aug 19, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down on August 19?$2.84Aug 19, 06:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 19?$7.41Aug 19, 03:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 18?$0.74Aug 18, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 14?$1.05Aug 14, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill KF Shkëndija 79 win on 2026-08-13?$11.73Aug 13, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 13?$1.10Aug 13, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 12?$1.05Aug 12, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 12?$1.09Aug 12, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 11?$1.05Aug 11, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on August 10?$1.05Aug 10, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 10?$1.05Aug 10, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 9?$1.10Aug 9, 13:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill FC Dallas win on 2026-08-08?$50.16Aug 9, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 8?$1.05Aug 8, 19:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 93 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
93 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $2.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 12:42 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 05:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 93 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.