Fortunate-Analogue
0x647096dafc18b9202a90bf0a9a2f9c1103f9b017
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-83.45
Win rate
14%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7AM ET
3199 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-25.99
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 8AM ET
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 4AM ET
1052 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 18?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on February 21?
311 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 11?
310 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
300 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
BNB Up or Down - July 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET
285 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 11?
268 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
214 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.93
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$2.03Jul 29, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$1.60Jul 29, 05:06 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$2.15Jul 29, 04:55 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$2.00Jul 29, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET$1.49Jul 29, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$1.55Jul 29, 04:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$2.05Jul 29, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET$1.55Jul 29, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET$1.55Jul 29, 04:35 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET$2.03Jul 29, 04:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 29, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET$1.62Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$1.66Jul 29, 04:21 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$2.03Jul 29, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$1.53Jul 29, 04:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$2.00Jul 29, 04:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$1.64Jul 29, 04:16 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$2.05Jul 29, 04:15 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$2.10Jul 29, 04:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$2.03Jul 29, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$1.45Jul 29, 04:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $1.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 00:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 05:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.