Wallet digest

active

Activity score

56/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

135

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.5K

Realised

$-59.30

Win rate

65%

17 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 135

NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 January 26-1?
1093 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 February 2-8?
1005 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026
$0.00
$-5.20
YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 26-1?
450 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 8AM ET
240 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026
$0.00
$-3.20
YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 11?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
200 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026
$0.00
$-9.44
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
169 shares @ 44.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026
$0.00
$-74.55

Recent activity

TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$2.00Apr 26, 15:21 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$0.00Apr 26, 15:21 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$8.21Apr 26, 15:20 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$2.00Apr 26, 15:19 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$3.00Apr 26, 15:18 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$3.00Apr 26, 15:17 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$1.00Apr 26, 15:13 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$25.56Apr 26, 15:12 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$3.80Apr 26, 14:42 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$10.00Apr 26, 14:41 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$2.00Apr 26, 14:22 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$10.00Apr 26, 14:19 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$0.00Apr 26, 14:17 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$5.00Apr 26, 14:15 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$5.00Apr 26, 14:15 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$3.00Apr 26, 14:14 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$2.00Apr 26, 14:13 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$2.00Apr 26, 13:34 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$4.91Apr 26, 10:24 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$3.00Apr 26, 10:19 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

43/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

65% win rate over 17 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence57 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry47 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk35 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 45
Avg trade size: $3.64
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Mar 29, 15:22 UTC
Last active: Apr 26, 15:21 UTC
Win rate sample: 17 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 10:09:35 UTC·src:Polymarket Data