Grim-Twine
0x649ba1a419121c49e66a06583986e23f0552dadc
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$71.32
Total PnL
$-224.13
Realised
$-3.58
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?
60 shares @ 33.2¢·now 37.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.61
$2.61
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
115 shares @ 26.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.35
$-8.65
- YES
Iran successfully targets shipping on August 14, 2026?
100 shares @ 15.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$12.00
$-3.00
- YES
Iran leadership change by September 30?
100 shares @ 15.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.50
$-8.50
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
141 shares @ 21.3¢·now 3.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$4.29
$-25.71
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
30 shares @ 33.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$2.58
$-7.42
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
36 shares @ 56.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.96
$-18.04
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
59 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.03
$-19.97
- YES
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?
139 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
106 shares @ 18.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on August 14, 2026?$15.00Aug 10, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?$20.00Aug 8, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$10.00Aug 8, 18:43 UTC
- REDEEM0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$88.50Aug 5, 02:47 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?$5.09Aug 2, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$8.79Aug 1, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$20.00Aug 1, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$20.00Aug 1, 03:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?$20.00Aug 1, 03:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?$20.00Aug 1, 03:18 UTC
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$104.17Jul 30, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$25.00Jul 29, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$20.00Jul 29, 02:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$45.49Jul 29, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$40.00Jul 26, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$20.46Jul 22, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$10.00Jul 22, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?$50.00Jul 22, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by September 30?$15.00Jul 19, 04:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by December 31?$30.00Jul 19, 04:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $20.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 23:48 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 23:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.