Vapid-Color
0x64ec1c72bd7c670caebe9b706ddea70bbc8cf91d
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$3.13
Total PnL
$0.07
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
1 shares @ 97.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$1.06
$0.03
- YES
Will NVIDIA dip to $192 in March?
1 shares @ 97.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$1.04
$0.02
- YES
Will Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?
1 shares @ 98.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.03
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ali Khamenei be the next leader out before 2027?$1.01Feb 28, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA dip to $192 in March?$1.02Feb 28, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$1.03Feb 28, 23:10 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 28?$0.00Feb 28, 23:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of December 29 above $3.50?$1.01Feb 28, 23:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?$1.02Feb 28, 23:09 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: December$1.03Feb 28, 23:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of December 29 above $430?$1.04Feb 28, 23:09 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 28?$0.00Feb 28, 23:09 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 28?$1.11Feb 28, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?$1.01Jan 28, 11:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 28?$1.02Jan 28, 11:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of December 29 above $3.50?$1.01Dec 31, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of December 29 above $430?$1.04Dec 31, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: December$1.02Dec 31, 10:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?$1.02Dec 31, 10:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November?$1.11Dec 31, 10:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?$1.13Nov 30, 13:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Government shutdown end by December 31?$1.15Nov 30, 13:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$1.15Nov 30, 13:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $184.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 19, 15:43 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 28, 23:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.