Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

109

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.2K

Realised

$-56.02

Win rate

25 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 109

YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 28?
1010 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-4.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET
111 shares @ 90.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
102 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 3, 2026?
100 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-16.00
YES
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?
100 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-9.00
NO
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?
100 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-8.00
NO
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 10, 2026?
100 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-8.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
100 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026
$0.00
$-45.00
NO
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.48Jul 17, 08:12 UTC
TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 13?$3.00Jul 12, 03:02 UTC
TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 13?$1.90Jul 11, 15:03 UTC
SPLITWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 13?$5.00Jul 11, 14:21 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$2.63Jul 10, 00:45 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$5.38Jul 9, 12:21 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$6.39Jul 9, 12:20 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$1.06Jul 9, 12:20 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$2.00Jul 9, 12:20 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$1.98Jul 9, 12:20 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$5.00Jul 9, 12:20 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$0.07Jul 9, 12:20 UTC
SPLITEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$30.00Jul 9, 12:15 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$5.50Jul 9, 12:15 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$5.50Jul 9, 12:15 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$0.56Jul 9, 12:15 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$2.75Jul 9, 12:15 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$2.75Jul 9, 12:15 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$2.75Jul 9, 12:15 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - July 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$2.19Jul 9, 12:15 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 25 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence83 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry74 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 36
Avg trade size: $5.16
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 9, 10:17 UTC
Last active: Jul 17, 08:12 UTC
Win rate sample: 25 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:45:12 UTC·src:Polymarket Data