Zesty-Smith
0x6560ced53870bdb3dd57604d05beb8bf4ac2f2be
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$66.45
Total PnL
$-59.26
Realised
$2.24
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?
12 shares @ 85.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.53
$0.53
- NO
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
13 shares @ 73.2¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$8.03
$-1.37
- YES
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
11 shares @ 70.4¢·now 68.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$7.48
$-0.20
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
6 shares @ 53.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.21
$2.80
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
6 shares @ 93.4¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.54
$0.12
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
70 shares @ 7.5¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.27
$0.01
- NO
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
6 shares @ 43.4¢·now 59.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.79
$1.00
- NO
Iran leadership change by June 30?
4 shares @ 98.8¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.66
$-0.01
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
4 shares @ 97.4¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.47
$0.03
- NO
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?
3 shares @ 98.2¢·now 95.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.03
$-0.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$1.07Jun 21, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$1.07Jun 21, 01:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-20?$11.11Jun 21, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$5.34Jun 21, 01:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-20?$1.65Jun 21, 00:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$2.75Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$6.63Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$4.06Jun 20, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-20?$1.65Jun 20, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-20?$10.03Jun 20, 23:47 UTC
- REDEEMUD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 0.5$1.41Jun 20, 23:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?$1.24Jun 20, 23:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?$2.90Jun 20, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?$4.87Jun 20, 22:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany win on 2026-06-20?$1.95Jun 20, 22:27 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Germany (-1.5)$11.76Jun 20, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?$1.62Jun 20, 22:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?$1.64Jun 20, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?$1.70Jun 20, 21:30 UTC
- TRADESELLUD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 0.5$2.26Jun 20, 20:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $4.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 00:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 21, 01:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.