Dramatic-Merchandise
0x65a521b3f1902977eb745961884762823aee71ca
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.93
Total PnL
$-375.74
Realised
$13.30
Win rate
58%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 29?
1075 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.54
$-0.54
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 29?
258 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.26
$-0.77
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on July 28?
269 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.13
$-0.87
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 9?
3170 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.56
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 8?
2861 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-4.15
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 20?
2509 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.51
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 21?
2075 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.08
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 11?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 26?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on July 16?
1890 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.89
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 30?$0.25Jul 28, 16:53 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down on July 28?$0.00Jul 28, 16:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 30?$0.34Jul 28, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on July 28?$0.10Jul 28, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 29?$0.05Jul 28, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 11AM ET$1.07Jul 28, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down on July 28?$0.33Jul 28, 15:48 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down on July 28?$0.75Jul 28, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 11AM ET$0.30Jul 28, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 11AM ET$0.15Jul 28, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 11AM ET$0.30Jul 28, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11AM ET$0.90Jul 28, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 11AM ET$0.15Jul 28, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 28?$1.07Jul 28, 15:30 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down on July 28?$0.81Jul 28, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down on July 28?$1.18Jul 28, 15:25 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down on July 28?$1.00Jul 28, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$0.45Jul 28, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 29?$0.03Jul 28, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 28?$0.35Jul 28, 14:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $0.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 11:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.