Knotty-Curler
0x65dc1131f86b65aeff2c97a6b122e33dcd0faded
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
135
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-4.1K
Realised
$-1.1K
Win rate
3%
131 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 135- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
7500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
5064 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-51.99
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
4400 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-30.80
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?
1519 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-48.40
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET
1232 shares @ 21.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-270.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET
1100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$125.90Jul 20, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$105.67Jul 20, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$56.85Jul 20, 08:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$19.23Jul 20, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$10.34Jul 20, 07:56 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$20.41Jul 18, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$10.36Jul 18, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$40.00Jul 18, 17:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$10.35Jul 18, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$10.35Jul 18, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$0.28Jul 18, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$1.07Jul 18, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$68.25Jul 11, 00:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$103.71Jul 11, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$103.78Jul 11, 00:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$103.18Jul 11, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$10.42Jul 11, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$10.48Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$1.07Jul 11, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$1.07Jul 11, 00:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 131 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
131 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $25.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 22:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 08:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 131 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.