Vivid-Highlight
0x65f7a9b1aeb3ce93a1bba535225da1cecc066d1a
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
103
Open notional
$3.65
Total PnL
$-113.83
Realised
$1.23
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 103- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?
59 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.91
$-0.09
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.72
$-0.28
- YES
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch?
29 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.9¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.57
$0.10
- YES
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch?
67 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.57
$0.03
- YES
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond?
67 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.20
$-0.80
- YES
Will Freddie Mac’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day?
93 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.14
$-0.14
- YES
Will Fannie Mae’s market cap be between $250B and $300B at market close on IPO day?
85 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.13
$-0.13
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
5 shares @ 1.5¢·now 2.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.12
$0.04
- YES
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day?
22 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.10
$-0.05
- YES
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
17 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.07
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$2.50Mar 17, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET$2.39Mar 17, 18:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$4.82Mar 17, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$2.50Mar 17, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET$2.50Mar 17, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$2.50Mar 17, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$2.50Mar 17, 15:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$4.64Mar 17, 15:38 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$5.81Mar 17, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$2.50Mar 17, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$1.67Mar 17, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$0.83Mar 17, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$2.50Mar 17, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$2.49Mar 17, 14:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$4.64Mar 17, 14:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$4.82Mar 17, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$2.50Mar 17, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET$2.45Mar 17, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$2.45Mar 17, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET$2.49Mar 17, 04:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $1.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 16, 20:06 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 17, 20:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.