Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

181

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-20.8K

Realised

$-405.91

Win rate

112 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 181

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
435 shares @ 42.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-184.28
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
427 shares @ 61.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026
$0.00
$-263.28
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
378 shares @ 67.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-254.83
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
321 shares @ 53.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-172.03
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
319 shares @ 46.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-147.88
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
307 shares @ 61.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-189.38
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
300 shares @ 69.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-208.22
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
300 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-182.93
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
300 shares @ 46.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-140.74
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
300 shares @ 62.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-188.64

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$211.89Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$66.08Jul 1, 00:45 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$300.00Jun 30, 11:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$228.00Jun 30, 11:16 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$306.64Jun 30, 11:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$2.77Jun 30, 11:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$18.07Jun 30, 11:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$4.78Jun 30, 11:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$210.00Jun 30, 11:13 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$419.92Jun 30, 11:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$15.41Jun 30, 11:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$8.18Jun 30, 11:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$45.00Jun 30, 11:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$14.73Jun 30, 11:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$7.49Jun 30, 11:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$14.73Jun 30, 11:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$29.45Jun 30, 11:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$9.17Jun 30, 11:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$10.51Jun 30, 11:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$16.32Jun 30, 11:09 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 112 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

112 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry69 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk31 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $20.34
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 30, 11:05 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
Win rate sample: 112 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 13:38:44 UTC·src:Polymarket Data