Vague-Venison
0x668d85d791049bf0100e557a72c7ed4dc97297d2
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$37.7K
Total PnL
$-21.1K
Realised
$-104.12
Win rate
72%
60 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
16900 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$13.5K
$5.1K
- NO
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
11480 shares @ 94.4¢·now 99.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.4K
$558.31
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
17000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.4K
$-5.1K
- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3396 shares @ 91.8¢·now 87.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.0K
$-144.10
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2700 shares @ 85.5¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.6K
$272.06
- NO
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
1200 shares @ 84.5¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$120.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1000 shares @ 91.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$966.50
$56.50
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
800 shares @ 92.9¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$773.20
$29.66
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
500 shares @ 91.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$486.49
$31.50
- NO
Iran Nuke before 2027?
333 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$315.66
$15.98
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.78Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELL10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$199.40Jul 28, 12:40 UTC
- YIELD$1.78Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.78Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.78Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.78Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.78Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.78Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.78Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$2.71Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.85Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.3KJul 20, 01:48 UTC
- YIELD$2.70Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$2.70Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.71Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.73Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$2.72Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$2.71Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.71Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$2.70Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
72% win rate over 60 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
13 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
60 closed markets, 72% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 13
- Avg trade size
- $62.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 60 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.