Untrue-Pheromone-Fog
0x6711843d55343b3e7feaa70aa018921551324907
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$69.56
Total PnL
$-130.15
Realised
$-13.37
Win rate
21%
34 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 10?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 63.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$6.21
$5.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 10?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 60.5¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$5.83
$4.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 10?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$5.15
$4.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 10?
7 shares @ 9.1¢·now 54.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$3.96
$3.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 10?
10 shares @ 9.1¢·now 37.5¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$3.62
$2.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 10?
7 shares @ 22.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$3.32
$1.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 10?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$2.65
$0.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 10?
5 shares @ 9.1¢·now 52.5¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$2.63
$2.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 10?
5 shares @ 9.1¢·now 52.5¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$2.63
$2.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 10?
5 shares @ 9.1¢·now 48.5¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$2.42
$1.97
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 10?$1.95Aug 10, 04:10 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Austin on August 10?$0.00Aug 10, 04:09 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on August 10?$5.00Aug 10, 04:09 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Panama City on August 10?$0.00Aug 10, 04:09 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on August 10?$5.00Aug 10, 04:09 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Houston on August 10?$0.00Aug 10, 04:09 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on August 10?$5.00Aug 10, 04:09 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Chicago on August 10?$0.00Aug 10, 04:09 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 10?$5.00Aug 10, 04:09 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Dallas on August 10?$0.00Aug 10, 04:09 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 10?$5.00Aug 10, 04:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on August 10?$0.04Aug 10, 04:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 10?$2.85Aug 10, 04:03 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Paris on August 10?$0.00Aug 10, 04:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 10?$0.38Aug 10, 04:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on August 10?$0.04Aug 10, 04:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 10?$0.00Aug 10, 04:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 10?$0.00Aug 10, 04:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 10?$3.19Aug 10, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 10?$3.60Aug 10, 04:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 34 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
34 closed markets, 21% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $1.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 10, 03:45 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 04:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 34 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.