Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-374.04

Realised

$-14.32

Win rate

34 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 37

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET
59 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
59 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-9.41
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 3, 6AM ET
59 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
53 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
50 shares @ 15.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-7.81
DOWN
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
50 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 4AM ET
45 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET
45 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
43 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
43 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00

Recent activity

REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 4PM ET$30.30Aug 18, 21:12 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 18, 4PM ET$10.47Aug 18, 20:44 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 1AM ET$10.46Aug 17, 05:26 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$25.00Aug 16, 17:16 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$8.89Aug 16, 17:00 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$10.47Aug 16, 13:31 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$10.49Aug 16, 03:14 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$30.30Aug 11, 22:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$10.47Aug 11, 21:52 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 10, 8PM ET$10.43Aug 11, 00:40 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$10.48Aug 9, 13:52 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$27.00Aug 8, 07:16 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$9.05Aug 8, 07:03 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 7, 2PM ET$29.41Aug 7, 19:11 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 7, 2PM ET$10.46Aug 7, 18:18 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$28.57Aug 6, 17:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$10.45Aug 6, 17:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$10.48Jul 29, 14:04 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 9PM ET$10.48Jul 29, 01:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$10.48Jul 27, 14:01 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 34 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

34 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity66 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry41 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk28 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 37
Avg trade size: $7.75
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 4, 16:26 UTC
Last active: Aug 18, 21:12 UTC
Win rate sample: 34 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 07:37:49 UTC·src:Polymarket Data