Quiet-Curve
0x67690a30c85fdbb871feed59f444de8a0ad41d22
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$246.36
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$26.14
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?
246 shares @ 4.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$246.36
$234.32
- NO
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31?
50583 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-520.15
- YES
Will Z.ai have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
14041 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-33.99
- NO
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?
10000 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-600.00
- YES
Will Z.ai have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?
7529 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?
6966 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-19.99
- NO
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?
4739 shares @ 12.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-601.99
- NO
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?
4500 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-500.00
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
3125 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
2909 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?$24.74Feb 6, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?$24.00Dec 19, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?$120.00Dec 11, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?$20.00Dec 11, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31?$499.67Dec 11, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?$250.00Dec 11, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?$132.00Dec 10, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 12?$200.00Dec 10, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?$200.00Dec 10, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.0 Flash released by December 18?$500.00Dec 10, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?$200.00Dec 10, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31?$0.33Dec 9, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?$213.95Dec 8, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?$381.17Dec 8, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?$1.28Dec 8, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?$3.60Dec 8, 18:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?$4.6KDec 8, 06:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?$20.00Dec 7, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?$20.00Dec 7, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31?$20.00Dec 7, 09:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $303.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 18, 15:44 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 6, 17:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.