Wallet digest

active

Activity score

42/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$78.80

Total PnL

$-536.07

Realised

$-32.73

Win rate

7 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 17

NO
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
25 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$25.03
$0.13
NO
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
10 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$9.87
$0.01
INNER CIRCLE ESPORTS
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs
10 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$9.76
$1.76
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET
8 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$8.00
$4.00
NO
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
8 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$7.58
$0.03
NO
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
6 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$6.29
$0.03
NO
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
6 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$5.56
$0.01
YES
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
3 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$3.08
$1.08
NO
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$2.97
$0.01
YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4 shares @ 27.0¢·now 17.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$0.66
$-0.34

Recent activity

YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:32 UTC
YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 31, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 30, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

18/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 7 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

block

Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.

Resolved-only track record

review

7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity48 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence23 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry29 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk78 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 5
Avg trade size: $5.4K
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 26, 15:59 UTC
Last active: Aug 10, 00:11 UTC
Win rate sample: 7 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:25:16 UTC·src:Polymarket Data