Fickle-Talk
0x67e9563d8df4ae79950d629ff23f056140bb7827
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-578.67
Realised
$-72.35
Win rate
36%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 14?
1002 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?
67 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.73
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 14?
63 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.60
- ENGLAND
T20 World Cup: England vs India
59 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 4?
46 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- WARRIORS
Spurs vs. Warriors
44 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-18.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on April 27?
43 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 1?
35 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.64
- YES
Will I Can Only Imagine 2 be the highest grossing movie this weekend?
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on April 15?
33 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 11?$5.99Jul 12, 05:16 UTC
- REDEEMArgentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score$3.32Jul 12, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 13?$0.74Jul 12, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 13?$0.43Jul 12, 03:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.89Jul 12, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 13?$0.63Jul 12, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on July 13?$1.73Jul 12, 02:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 13?$2.11Jul 12, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 13?$1.95Jul 12, 02:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 11?$2.73Jul 11, 23:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 11?$6.00Jul 11, 22:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 11?$6.00Jul 11, 22:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 11?$3.13Jul 11, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on July 13?$1.54Jul 11, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 13?$2.23Jul 11, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on July 13?$2.05Jul 11, 16:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 13?$0.72Jul 11, 16:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 11?$0.34Jul 11, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Score$1.49Jul 11, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.41Jul 11, 16:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $1.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 07:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 05:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.