Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-4.3K

Realised

$-226.56

Win rate

32 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 32

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
1449 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-168.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
1366 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-162.00
BELGIUM
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
1314 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-46.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
1054 shares @ 26.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-281.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
1001 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
940 shares @ 53.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026
$0.00
$-505.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
921 shares @ 42.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-391.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
890 shares @ 48.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-432.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
784 shares @ 31.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-248.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
731 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-105.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$1.07Jul 11, 19:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$1.06Jul 11, 19:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$1.06Jul 11, 19:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$1.05Jul 11, 19:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$1.04Jul 11, 19:30 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$3.16Jul 11, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$1.07Jul 10, 21:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$1.05Jul 10, 21:52 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$31.18Jul 10, 21:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$413.88Jul 10, 21:49 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$435.02Jul 10, 21:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$51.47Jul 10, 21:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$51.68Jul 10, 21:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$154.94Jul 10, 21:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$26.00Jul 10, 21:35 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$11.06Jul 10, 21:33 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$5.22Jul 10, 21:30 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$11.67Jul 10, 21:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$5.24Jul 10, 21:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$26.46Jul 10, 21:22 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

58/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 32 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

32 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry47 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk35 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $82.80
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 9, 12:06 UTC
Last active: Jul 11, 19:39 UTC
Win rate sample: 32 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 11:33:24 UTC·src:Polymarket Data