Wallet digest

active

Activity score

40/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

136

Open notional

$30.81

Total PnL

$-2.3K

Realised

$-1.0K

Win rate

86 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 136

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
8 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$8.00
$4.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
5 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$5.14
$2.11
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET
3 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$3.00
$1.32
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
2 shares @ 47.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$2.13
$1.13
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$1.89
$0.89
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
2 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$1.89
$0.89
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
2 shares @ 55.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$1.82
$0.82
UP
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$1.75
$0.75
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$1.75
$0.75
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$1.75
$0.75

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$2.26Jul 9, 21:14 UTC
REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$3.97Jun 10, 21:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$13.36Jun 10, 17:47 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$124.70Jun 10, 08:27 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$12.99Jun 10, 07:55 UTC
REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$68.70Jun 10, 07:28 UTC
REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$11.33Jun 10, 07:15 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$89.87Jun 10, 07:02 UTC
REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$7.41Jun 10, 06:46 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$59.65Jun 10, 06:40 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$8.74Jun 10, 06:29 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$8.80Jun 10, 05:54 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$5.65Jun 10, 05:49 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$17.87Jun 10, 05:42 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$39.72Jun 10, 05:39 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$83.74Jun 10, 05:34 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$2.00Jun 9, 13:36 UTC
REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.54Jun 9, 12:18 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$5.39Jun 9, 12:16 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$33.10Jun 9, 11:46 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 86 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

86 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity28 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry41 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk30 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 9
Avg trade size: $1.62
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 9, 10:30 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:14 UTC
Win rate sample: 86 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 11:36:50 UTC·src:Polymarket Data