Probable-Farrow
0x68146921df11eab44296dc4e58025ca84741a9e7
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$842.49
Total PnL
$-11.3K
Realised
$30.7K
Win rate
68%
101 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
4887 shares @ 1.1¢·now 9.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$464.22
$409.32
- YES
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
4887 shares @ 1.1¢·now 4.2¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$202.79
$147.89
- YES
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
4887 shares @ 1.1¢·now 1.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$48.87
$-6.03
- YES
Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
4887 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.9¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$46.42
$-8.48
- YES
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
6489 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$9.73
$-193.05
- YES
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3330 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.32
$-17.69
- YES
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3330 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.99
$-21.02
- YES
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3330 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.99
$-21.02
- YES
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3330 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.99
$-21.02
- YES
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3330 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.99
$-21.02
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:20 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$73.54Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:15 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$31.68Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:13 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$38.89Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$132.85Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$98.30Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 101 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
101 closed markets, 68% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 101 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.