Worrisome-Chinchilla
0x68540c38878781e28add4857f7574802ddcd67d0
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$325.82
Total PnL
$-145.02
Realised
$176.40
Win rate
100%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?
136 shares @ 8.3¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.26
$28.89
- YES
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30?
122 shares @ 14.3¢·now 25.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$30.64
$13.20
- YES
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $536,000 and $542,000 on September 30?
90 shares @ 14.3¢·now 28.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$25.59
$12.76
- YES
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?
136 shares @ 8.3¢·now 15.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.29
$9.92
- YES
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.50 on December 31, 2026?
42 shares @ 14.3¢·now 34.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.51
$8.53
- YES
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026?
95 shares @ 8.3¢·now 14.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.71
$5.83
- YES
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in July?
60 shares @ 16.7¢·now 20.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$11.92
$1.99
- YES
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $512,000 and $518,000 on September 30?
122 shares @ 14.3¢·now 9.2¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$11.17
$-6.27
- YES
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in July?
60 shares @ 16.7¢·now 18.2¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$10.85
$0.91
- YES
Will voter turnout be between 70% and 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
50 shares @ 20.0¢·now 21.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$10.50
$0.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in July?$14.59Jul 29, 08:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pete Buttigieg be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?$16.15Jul 29, 08:37 UTC
- MERGEWill Trump make no announcement for the next FDA commissioner by December 31?$9.89Jul 29, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump make no announcement for the next FDA commissioner by December 31?$6.43Jul 27, 20:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$19.99Jul 17, 23:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?$12.99Jul 16, 11:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cody Bellinger be named the 2026 MLB All-Star Game MVP?$41.57Jul 15, 05:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill someone else record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.58Jul 15, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill July 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?$7.73Jul 14, 07:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Betty Gilpin – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series?$22.47Jul 14, 03:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?$28.26Jul 14, 03:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reliance Industries Ltd be the largest Indian company?$60.77Jul 14, 03:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill The Super Bowl LX Halftime Show starring Bad Bunny win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?$45.04Jul 14, 03:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Carleigh Beriont be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?$14.62Jul 14, 03:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill The Tonys win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?$45.87Jul 14, 03:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sian Astley win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by less than 5%?$35.98Jul 14, 03:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?$0.27Jul 14, 03:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dustin Darden win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round?$20.96Jul 14, 03:35 UTC
- TRADESELLTheo James announced as next James Bond?$11.19Jul 14, 03:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May?$0.15Jul 14, 03:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $21.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 15:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.