Troubled-Sultan-Orangutan
0x685a15386e609a2e69e7188bf407934eecd22f06
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$28.27
Total PnL
$-27.67
Realised
$-1.92
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 34.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.52
$1.82
- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
5 shares @ 55.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.52
$-0.23
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 36.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.48
$0.68
- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
10 shares @ 20.3¢·now 17.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.72
$-0.31
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
5 shares @ 31.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.68
$0.13
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 21.4¢·now 30.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.51
$0.44
- YES
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?
5 shares @ 30.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.45
$-0.05
- YES
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 38.1¢·now 28.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.41
$-0.49
- YES
Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch?
5 shares @ 22.0¢·now 25.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$1.25
$0.15
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?
5 shares @ 36.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.23
$-0.57
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?$1.45Aug 19, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?$0.46Aug 19, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?$0.80Aug 19, 13:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Don't Look Down" - Rod Wave first week album sales be 165k or more?$0.81Aug 19, 11:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Klarna say "Southwest Airlines" during earnings call?$5.00Aug 18, 19:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Home Depot say "Lumber" during earnings call?$5.00Aug 18, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $3M committed to the Multipli public sale?$1.40Aug 18, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Home Depot say "Revenue" during earnings call?$0.64Aug 18, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Home Depot say "Revenue" during earnings call?$0.81Aug 18, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $15M committed to the Multipli public sale?$0.35Aug 18, 11:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?$1.98Aug 18, 08:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026?$0.15Aug 18, 08:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 18?$0.05Aug 18, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Klarna say "Southwest Airlines" during earnings call?$2.95Aug 18, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 18?$0.03Aug 18, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Home Depot say "Lumber" during earnings call?$2.90Aug 18, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELL151 Ultra-Premium Collection Price Up/Down on August 31?$0.49Aug 18, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Denis Villeneuve win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?$1.09Aug 18, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?$0.77Aug 18, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?$0.65Aug 18, 01:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 4, 09:27 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 16:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.