Novel-Outlay
0x68703d734d385f4221066b3bcfe6ba4dd93feabe
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.4K
Realised
$-72.08
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
4500 shares @ 12.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-555.79
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
4084 shares @ 15.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-630.46
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
1950 shares @ 27.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 13, 2025$0.00
$-539.48
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
1454 shares @ 26.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-387.54
- NO
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
1200 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-264.00
- LAKERS
Lakers vs. Thunder
1000 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 13, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
400 shares @ 43.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-173.17
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
400 shares @ 9.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-37.63
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
400 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 13, 2025$0.00
$-164.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
300 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-87.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket US go live in 2025?$173.19Nov 30, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket US go live in 2025?$220.26Nov 30, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket US go live in 2025?$5.75Nov 30, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket US go live in 2025?$44.78Nov 30, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$9.79Nov 18, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$6.77Nov 18, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$16.01Nov 18, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$16.23Nov 18, 10:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?$27.39Nov 17, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?$236.61Nov 17, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$96.00Nov 17, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$66.00Nov 16, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$90.00Nov 15, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$74.04Nov 15, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$0.05Nov 15, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$0.09Nov 15, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$30.82Nov 15, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$139.95Nov 15, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket US go live in 2025?$96.49Nov 15, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$10.05Nov 15, 08:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $44.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 14, 06:40 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 30, 15:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".